Objective

In this 2×5 hours course, participants will gain an understanding of different types of effort estimation approaches.

Target Audience

All IT project roles related to planning and estimation.

Prerequisites

Prior basic experience in estimation and planning.

Agenda

Introduction

• The goal, purpose and definition of estimation
• Estimation accuracy and resolution levels, tradeoff between time spent on estimation and estimation accuracy

Estimation types and units

• Time (effort, duration, differentiation between gross and net time)
• Cost
• Resource units
• Abstract estimation (story points, T-shirt sizing, etc.)

Preparing for an estimation

• Clarifying estimation scope (definition of done), required accuracy, technique, etc.
• What to consider in an estimation (assumptions, risks, uncertainty, etc), facilitating estimation

Estimation techniques (advantages, disadvantages of each, when to use them, along with practical tips and exercises)

• Expert judgement
• Analogous estimation
• Parametric estimation
• Three point estimation (PERT distribution)
• Bottom up estimation (WBS)
• Planning poker
• Magic estimation (Big wall)
• For all techniques: performance of data analysis, risks analysis, contingency reserves, documenting assumptions, agreeing on estimations, ensuring proper confidence level

Outputs of estimation techniques

• Value, range, probability, risks, assumptions, contingencies, reserves, documented basis of estimations

The psychology of estimation, soft skills

• Left brain vs. right brain
• Accuracy of estimating short time vs. long time periods
• How to estimate uncertainty
• Optimists, pessimists estimation, pressure levels, honesty and autonomy, expert bias, the effect of personality types on estimation

Pitfalls, bad practices

• Padding 
• Brooks,’ law
• Reverse engineering from the deadline
• Student syndrome, Parkinson’s law

Usage of estimation for planning and negotiation

• How to communicate estimations, estimate ranges, internal and external targets
• Project management triangle (iron triangle), trade-offs
• Schedule compression, fast tracking
• Scope reduction

+Extra Simulation and hands-on practices